Performance of Regional Climate Model (WRF 4.3) in Medium Range Rainfall Forecast (MRRF) for Tamil Nadu, India

C. Musierose

Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore - 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India.

S. Kokilavani *

Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore - 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India.

Ga. Dheebakaran

Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore - 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India.

N. K. Sathyamoorthy

Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore - 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India.

R. Pangayar Selvi

Department of Physical Sciences, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore - 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


Abstract

The weather events are highly dynamic and fluctuating for the next few days due to enormous processes carried out by nature and physics and it is even more highly variable in tropics. The Medium Range Weather Forecast is incredibly helpful and trustworthy for agricultural purposes and rainfall is one of the most imminent events determining productivity. The Medium Range Rainfall Forecast (MRRF) given by Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF v 4.3) is verified using forecast verification scores including Ratio of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Scores were computed by comparing forecast generated using two microphysics options viz., WRF Single Moment scheme (WSM-3) and Kessler scheme during South West Monsoon (SWM) and North East Monsoon (NEM) of the year 2021 for five different physiographic regions of Tamil Nadu. WSM-3 microphysics scheme outperformed in predicting MRRF for all the five regions and during both the monsoons.

Keywords: Rainfall forecast, WRF, microphysics, forecast verification scores, accuracy


How to Cite

Musierose, C., S. Kokilavani, Ga. Dheebakaran, N. K. Sathyamoorthy, and R. Pangayar Selvi. 2022. “Performance of Regional Climate Model (WRF 4.3) in Medium Range Rainfall Forecast (MRRF) for Tamil Nadu, India”. International Journal of Environment and Climate Change 12 (11):570-76. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2022/v12i1131008.

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