International Journal of Environment and Climate Change

Climate change is affecting health in a variety of ways, including deaths and illness from extreme weather events, heat waves, storms and floods, the disruption of food systems, an increase in zoonoses and food, water and vector-borne diseases, mental health problems and environmental migration. It is also undermining social determinants of good health, such as livelihoods, equality and access to health care and social support structures. These risks disproportionately affect the most vulnerable and disadvantaged people (women, children, ethnic workers, poor communities, migrants  and/or displaced persons, older adults and people with underlying health conditions). The objective of this study is to present a set of regional projections of temperature, rainfall, humidity and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Indices (SPEI) drought index for Mexico under the sixth evaluation cycle (AR6) climate change scenarios of the (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), improving the projections of the Ocean-Atmospheric General Circulation Models and estimating the possible impacts of climate change on the health sector of Mexico. Regional models for Mexico show temperature increases ranging from 0.5 to 5°C, while % precipitation anomaly will range from -20.3 to 13.5% depending on scenario and period of analysis. The low soil moisture, the negative changes of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and SPEI 12 show that the North, West and Bajío zones presented reductions in precipitation and temperature increase that caused soil moisture deficit, water stress, presence of scarce vegetation and semi-permanent meteorological drought. Under these scenarios, it is expected that the entire country will be subjected to moderate to extremely strong droughts that will last and worsen between now and the end of the century. The results of the scenario projections and forecasts made by the IPCC show that diseases associated with climate change have already been present for several decades in Mexico and are expected to worsen by the end of the century, with consequent increases in health expenditures. It is estimated an increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) investment in the health sector that would go from the current 6.25% to more than 18%, while per capita spending will increase from $ 1230 US dollars to more than $ 3800 dollars at the end of the century, which could perhaps be unfeasible for the national economy, since it is estimated that productivity in the three sectors would be substantially reduced by the end of the century by the same effects of climate change. Thus, the vulnerability of the health sector in Mexico is high to very high, which puts the population at high risk.