Climate and Agriculture in Côte D'ivoire: Perception and Quantification of the Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa Production by 2050
Diomandé Métangbo *
Peleforo Gbon Coulibaly University of Korhogo, Côte d'Ivoire and Swiss Center for Scientific Research in Côte d'Ivoire, Côte d'Ivoire
Akpa Lucette
Felix-Houphouët-Boigny University, Côte d'Ivoire.
Ouattara Annette Lhaur-Yaigaiba
Nangui Abrogoua University, Côte d'Ivoire.
Kpan Gauthier Oulaï
Swiss Center for Scientific Research in Côte d'Ivoire, Côte d'Ivoire.
Koffi Antoine
Jean Lorougnon Guédé University of Daloa, Côte d'Ivoire.
Yao Koffi Blaise
Felix-Houphouët-Boigny University, Côte d'Ivoire.
Yapi Assa Fabrice
Peleforo Gbon Coulibaly University of Korhogo, Côte d'Ivoire.
Soro Dogniméton
Jean Lorougnon Guédé University of Daloa, Côte d'Ivoire.
Agbri Lako
Ministry of State, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Côte d'Ivoire.
Biémi Jean
Felix-Houphouët-Boigny University, Côte d'Ivoire.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Cocoa contributes 7.5% of Côte d'Ivoire's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is an important cash crop for the rural population in the country's forest areas. Cocoa, like the crops of West Africa, is deeply affected by the consequences of climate change. The objective of this research is to predict the impact of climate change on cocoa production in the main producing regions of Côte d'Ivoire and to analyze farmers' perceptions of climate change. The soil data were those of the World Harmonized Database version 1.2 of the FAO and allowed the spatio-temporal analysis of the useful reserve of water in the soil. The socio-economic data used integrated in the production forecasting model were taken from the report of the Census of Farmers and Farms 2015/2016. The temperature and precipitation series over the period 1981-2016 served as a climatic reference. The RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used for climate projections by 2050. The results showed a temperature increase of around +1°C to +1.5°C by 2050 ; and a decrease in rainfall over the entire Ivorian territory. According to the developed model, national cocoa production is expected to fall by around 17% and 23% respectively under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Moreover, some current cocoa production areas will become unsuitable (Lagunes and Sud-Comoe in Côte d'Ivoire) due to the new pedoclimatic conditions. The results obtained also highlighted a relatively low level of knowledge of cocoa producers regarding the effects of climate on well-being.
Keywords: Cocoa, climate change, horizon 2050, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, Côte d'Ivoire