Future Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria

Main Article Content

Femi S. Omotayo
Philip G. Oguntunde
Ayorinde A. Olufayo


This study was carried to determine the trend of cocoa yield and climatic variables and assessment of the impact of climate change on the future yield of cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria. Annual trend statistics for cocoa yield and climatic variables were analyzed for the state using Mann-Kendall test for trend and Sen’s slope estimates. Downscaled data from six Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to examine the impact of climate change on the future yield of cocoa in the study area. The results of trends analysis in Ondo State showed that yield decreased monotonically at the rate of 492.18 tonnes/yr (P<0.05). An increased significant trend was established in annual rainfall trend. While Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and mean temperature all increased at the rate of 0.02/yr (P<0.001). The ensemble of all the GCMs projected a mid-term future decrease of about 9,334 tonnes/yr by 2050 and a long-term future decrease of 13,504 tonnes/yr of cocoa by 2100. The economic implication of these is that, if the projected change in the yield of cocoa as predicted by the ensemble of all the GCMs should hold for the future, it means that Ondo state may experience a loss of about $22,470,018.22 and $32,308,584.32 by the year 2050 and 2100 respectively according to the present price of the commodity in the world market. Measures are to be taken by the government and farmers to find a way of mitigating the impacts of climate change on the future yield of the cocoa study area. This research should be extended to other cocoa producing areas in Nigeria.

Climate change, cocoa yield, climate variable, Mann-Kendall trend, future yield.

Article Details

How to Cite
S. Omotayo, F., G. Oguntunde, P., & A. Olufayo, A. (2019). Future Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria. International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 9(8), 467-476. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2019/v9i830132
Original Research Article


Oyekale AS, Bolaji MB, Lowa OW. The effects of climate change on cocoa production and vulnerability assessment in Nigeria. Agricultural Journal. 2009;4(2):77-85.

Hamzat RA, Umana TE, Babayemi OJ. Potentials of cocoa husk pulp as a sole feed ingredient for African giant land snails (Archachatina marginata). In the book of abstracts of the 14th International Cocoa Conference. Organized by Cocoa producer’s Alliance (COPAL) with the Government of Ghana. 2003;151.

Olubamiwa O, Odewumi WO, Longe OG, Hamzat RA. Practical inclusion of cocoa bean shell in poultry feed a preliminary report. In Proceedings of the 13th International Cocoa Research Conference. Organized by Cocoa Producer’s Alliance with the Government of Malaysia. 2000;981-986.

ICCO (International Cocoa Organization). Annual Report 2008/2009. London: ICCO; 2008.
Available:www.icco.org/pdf/Annual _report/AnnualReport2008/2009

Ayanlaja SA. The development of an alley cropping system: A viable agro forestry technology for sustained cocoa production in Nigeria. Cocoa growers’ Bulletin’. 2000;52:9-18.

Anim-Kwapong GJ, Frimpong EB. The vulnerability of agriculture to climate – Change impact of climate on Cocoa production. Cocoa Research Institute, New Tafo Akim, Ghana; 2005.

Odjugo PAO. General overview of climate change impacts in Nigeria. Journal Hum Ecol. 2010;29(1):47-55.

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO). World Cocoa production; 2005.

Enete AA, Amusa TA. Challenges of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Nigeria: A synthesis from the literature», Field Actions Science Reports [Online]. 2010;4.

OSMARD. Ondo state ministry of agriculture and rural development, Annual report, Akure, Nigeria; 2004.

Salmi T, Maatta A, Anttila P, Ruoho-AirolaAmnell T. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates. Publications on air quality, No 31. Helsinki, Finland; 2002.

Hobbins MT, Ramirez JA, Brown TC. Trends in pan evaporation and actual evapotranspiration across the conterminous U.S.: Paradoxical or complementary? Geophys. Res. Lett. 2001;31:L13503.

Oguntunde SO, Ajibefun IA, Oguntunde PG, Anugwo SC. Analysis of trends and association between climatic variables and cocoa yield in Ondo state. Journal of Meteorology and Climate Science. 2014;12(1):42-50.

Thompson OA. The effect climate change on cocoa production in Ekiti and Ondo states of Nigeria: A co-integration analysis. Journal of Sustainable Technology. 2013;4(2):66-77.

Oluyole AK. The effect of weather on cocoa production in different agro-ecological zones in Nigeria. World Journal of Agriculture Sciences. 2010;5(5):609-614.

Edet EO, Udoe PO, Ekong AE. The economic impact of climate change on cocoa production among south-Western states, Nigeria: Results from the Ricardian analysis. Global Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences. 2018;24:171–280.

Amos TT, Thompson OA. Climate change and the cocoa production in the tropical rain forest ecological zone of Ondo State, Nigeria. Journal of Environment and Earth Science. 2015;5(1):36–42.

Ajewole DO, Iyanda S. Effect of climate change on cocoa yield: A case study of Cocoa Research Institute (CRIN) farm, Oluyole local government Ibadan, Oyo State. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa. 2010;12(1):350-358.