Main Article Content
Scrutiny and analysis of various energy applications show that the energy conversion to useful work or new products has been systematically inefficient. The global energy’s total effective conversion efficiency is estimated only about 20% and about 80% of the energy has been discharged into the environment. It is this energy that leads to the unbalance of the climate system’s energy budget balance and causes the global warming.
This article presents a simple equivalent climate change model to track the past global warming and to predict the future change trend at the global scale. The model comprises of an equivalent climate change surface air boundary layer, an equivalent climate change land surface boundary layer and an equivalent climate change seawaters surface boundary layer. It produces unique definitive relationships between the temperature changes and the heat entered the air, waters and land. The model can also be used to forecast future non-renewable energy consumption needed to keep the temperature rising under Paris Accord.
Analysis of currently available data by using this model confirms that temperature changes in air, seawaters and land closely correlate to the amount of heat discharged into the climate system from human activities. NASA and NOAA’s observations of temperature anomalies for the surface air, sea surface and land surface are well consistent with the temperature changes calculated by this model, especially the calculated results at the depth of 70 meters of the surface air boundary layer and NASA’s Lowess Smoothing trend are very close.
Flaring intensifies global warming. Reducing use of fossil fuels, nuclear and geothermal energies, developing surface renewable energies and increasing energy’s total effective conversion efficiency and thus reducing the amount of residual/waste energy are the paths to effectively and efficiently control global warming.
Ruptly.tv. Russia: It moves! Grass bizarrely bubbles in Siberia; 2016.
W5. What happens when the permafrost thaws; 2017.
Belinda Robinson. Mystery as HUGE craters emerge in Russia: Scientist claims they are major warning to world. Express UK; 2017.
DenielGlack. The big thaw - As the climate warms, how much, and how quickly, will Earth's glaciers melt?
National Snow and Ice Data Center. Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis – Sea ice data updated daily with one-day log.
(Accessed April 7, 2018)
Steiner N, Azetsu-Scott K, Galbraith P, Hamilton J, Hedges K, Hu X, Janjua MY, Lambert N, Larouche P, Lavoie D, Loder J, Melling H, Merzouk A, Myers P, Perrie W, Peterson I, Pettipas R, Scarratt M, Sou T, Starr M, Tallmann RF,Van der Baaren A. Climate change assessment in the Arctic Basin Part 1: Trends and projections - A contribution to the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2013;3042: xv + 163.
NASA. Global Climate Change Vital Signs of the Planet.
Robert M Carter, Craig D Idso, Fred Singer S. Why scientists disagree global warming? The NIPCC Report on Scientific Consensus; 2015
IPCC Data Distribution Centre. What is a GCM? and Criteria for Selecting Climate Scenarios in Scenario Selection etc.
Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Braconnot P, Gillett NP, Luo Y, Marengo Orsini JA, Nicholls N, Penner JE, Stott PA. Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; 2007.
Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, Braconnot P, Chou SC, Collins W, Cox P, Driouech F, Emori S, Eyring V, Forest C, Gleckler P, Guilyardi E, Jakob C, Kattsov V, Reason C, Rummukainen M. Evaluation of climate models. In: Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. contribution of working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; 2013.
Anonymous. General circulation model. Wikipedia.
Chris Mooney. Stunningly good news for the planet: Carbon emissions were flat for the third straight year. The Washington Post; 2016.
BP Statistical Review of World Energy. bp-stats-review-2018-all-data from 1965; 2018.
Rebecca Lindsey. Did global warming stop in 1998? NOAA Climate.gov.; 2018.
Wigley TML, Raper SCB. Climatic change due to solar irradiance changes. J. of Geophysical Research Letters. 1990;17 (12).
Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Zhao Zongci, Wen Xinyu, Huang Jianbin. Controversy over the causes of global warming. Adv. Clim. Change Res. Chinese. 2011;7(2):79-84.
Sami K Solanki, Natalie A Krivova, Joanna D Haigh. Solar irradiance variability and climate. Annu. Rev. Astron. Astrophys. 2013;51:311–51.
US Department of Energy. where the energy goes: Gasoline vehicles.
212. Anonymous. Fuel efficiency. Wikipedia.
Chunshan Song, Wei Pan, Srinivas T. Srimat, Jian Zheng, Yan Li, Yu-He Wang, Bo-Qing Xu, Qi-Ming Zhu. CO2 Conversion to syngas with desired H2/CO ratios using flue gas of power plants without CO2separation. Studies in Surface Science and Catalysis. 2004;153:315-322.
NenadSarunac. Power 101: Flue gas heat recovery in power plants, Part I. Power; 2010.
Shiying Lin, Takashi Kiga, Yin Wang, Katsuhiro Nakayama. Energy analysis of CaCO3 calcination with CO2 capture. Energy Procedia. Energy Procedia. 2011;4: 356-361. ScienceDirect.
Wicky Moffat, Walmsley MRW. Understanding lime calcination kinetics for energy cost reduction. 59th Appita Conference. Auckland, New Zealand; 2006. Available:https://www.scribd.com/document/177117629/Understanding-Lime-Calcination
Huang Tuyuan, Jiang Jiafen, Yang Nanru, Zhou Zhaotong, etc. Concrete material foundation, modern concrete technology. P.11. Shaanxi Science and Technology Press Chinese; 1998.
Anonymous. Clinker Thermochemistry. Cement Kilns.
Kurt E Peray. The rotary cement kiln. chemical publishing Co., Inc. New York. 1986;107.
Natural Resources Canada. Energy Consumption Benchmark Guide: Cement Clinker Production; 2001.
BP. P.l.c. BP. Statistical Review of World Energy; 2018.
Jacques Schonek. How big are power line losses? Schneider Electric Blog; 2013. Available:https://blog.schneider-electric.com/energy-management-energy-efficiency/2013/03/25/how-big-are-power-line-losses/
Green Riverside. Energy Efficient Motors. Available:https://www.energydepot.com/RPUcom/library/MISC003.asp.
The World Bank. Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR), Press Release; 2018.
The World Bank. Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership – Issue Brief; 2006.
Audrey Wozniak. The world’s longest burning fires: China's unseen story. ChinaDialogue; 2013.
Anonymous. Coal seam fires. Wikipedia.
Anonymous. China's Centuries Old Underground Coal Fires. China Uncensored; 2013.
Stuart J. Day, Jon N. Carras, Robyn Fry and David J. Williams. Greenhouse gas emissions from Australia open-cut coal mines: contribution from spontaneous combustion and low-temperature oxidation. Environ Monit Assess. 2010;166(1–4): 529–541.
BP. P.l.c. BP Energy Outlook 2018 Edition.
NASA. Global climate change – Vital Signs of the Planet. Sea Level.
Maria-Jose Viñas, Carol Rasmussen. Warming seas and melting ice sheets; 2015.
Timothy Bralower, David Bice. Heat capacity and energy storage, Earth 103: Earth in the Future.
Tim Sharp. What Is Earth's Average Temperature? Space.com; 2018.
World Meteorological Organization. Relative Humidity. UNData – a World of Information.
Anonymous. How to convert relative humidity to absolute humidity. Carnotcycle - The classical blog on thermodynamics; 2012.
Jennifer Bergman. Temperature of ocean water. Windows to the Universe; 2011. Available:https://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Water/temp.html
Anonymous. Appendix 1 - Property Tables and Charts (SI UNITS).
Jennifer Bergman. Density of ocean water. windows to the Universe; 2001.
Earnest Hooton. Earth. New World Encyclopedia.
Anonymous. History rewritten, Global Cooling from 1940–1970, an 83% consensus, 285 papers being “erased”. JoNova; 2016.
Marc Morano. Before 1960s-’70s Global cooling was erased, it caused droughts, crop failures,glacier advance, Ice Age Threats. Climate Depot; 2017.
Catherine Brahic. Climate myths: The cooling after 1940 shows CO2 does not cause warming. New Scientist; 2007. Available:https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11639-climate-myths-the-cooling-after-1940-shows-co2-does-not-cause-warming/
Admin. Global Cooling 1940–1975 explained for climate change experts. Oceans Govern Climate; 2017.
NASA’s Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C).
NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, climate at a glance: Global Time Series - Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies; 2018.
(Accessed December 13, 2018)
Oke TR. Boundary layer climates, second edition, Routledge, London & New York. 1987;4-5.
NASA. Rising seas.
Nation Ocean Service. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. What are El Niño and La Niña?
StumnW, Morgan JJ. Aquatic chemistry - An introduction emphasizing chemical equilibria in natural waters, 2nd Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1981. Chinese version, Translated by Tang Hongxiao, Science Press; 1987.
James Conca. Climate change has the Earth in hot water. Forbes; 2015.
LuAnn Dahlman, Rebecca Lindsey. Climate change: Ocean heat content. NOAA Climate.Gov.; 2018.
NOAA. Global ocean temperature anomalies, January-December (Base Period: 1901-2000); 2018.
NASA California Institute of Technology – Jet Propulsion Laboratory: PODAAC. Sea Surface Temperature.
Wikipedia. List of wars: 1945–1989. Available:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars:_1945%E2%80%931989#1960%E2%80%931969
Anonymous. A Brief history of nuclear accidents worldwide. Union of Concerned Scientists; 2013.
Wikipedia. Lists of nuclear disasters and radioactive incidents.
Wikipedia. Historical nuclear weapons stockpiles and nuclear tests by country. Available:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_stockpiles_and_nuclear_tests_by_country#/media/File:Worldwide_nuclear_testing_multilang.svg
Wikipedia. Soviet nuclear tests; 1969. Available:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_Soviet_nuclear_tests
Arms Control Association. The Nuclear Testing Tally – Fact Sheets and Briefs. Available:https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally
Sandrine Mulet, Bruno Buongiorno Nardelli, Simon Good, Andrea Pisano, Eric Greiner, MaevaMonier, Emmanuelle Autret, Lars Axell, Fredrik Boberg, Stefania Ciliberti, Marie Drévillon, Riccardo Droghei, Owen Embury, Jérome Gourrion, Jacob Høyer, MélanieJuza, John Kennedy, Benedicte Lemieux-Dudon, ElisavetaPeneva, Rebecca Reid, Simona Simoncelli, Andrea Storto, Jonathan Tinker, Karina von Schuckmann and Sarah L. Wakelin, 1.1 Ocean temperature and salinity, 22.214.171.124. Temperature. In: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Journal of Operational Oceanography. 2000;11(2): Sup1,s13–s16.
NEO (NASA Earth Observations). Land Surface Temperature [Night] (1 Month - TERRA/MODIS).
UK Met Office. How we measure soil temperatures?
US NOAA Nation weather services. Soil Temperature Maps by Depth.
North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network. Current Deep Soil Temperature. (Accessed Jan 3, 2019)
NOAA National Centers for Environmental information. Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series; 2019.
(Accessed June 4, 2019)
BP. P.l.c. BP Energy Outlook, 2019 Edition; 2019.