Assessment of Croplands’ Exposure to Climate Variability in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change,
Page 53-77
DOI:
10.9734/ijecc/2021/v11i130340
Abstract
The knowledge of exposure of croplands to climate variability is of paramount importance in adaptive capacity planning to boost food production for the world’s growing population. The study assessed the exposure of croplands to climate variability in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Nigeria using Geo-informatics. This was achieved by examining the distribution pattern of climate indices in FCT from 1981-2017, determining the exposure index of croplands in FCT Area Councils and production of exposure map of FCT Area Councils, The spatial scope of this study is the entire arable land in FCT which is made up of six Area Councils. The research is contextually restricted to exposure of croplands to climate variables while other variables remain constant. The selected climatic variables are rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and potential evapotranspiration (exposure indicators). The arable crops in focus are yam, beans and maize while the soil variables selected for the study are: soil erosion, organic carbon content of the soil, clay content of the soil and percentage of arable land available for crop production. The temporal scope of the examined exposure indicators (climate variables) was limited to a period of thirty (37) years from 1981- 2017. The result indicates that Bwari has the highest exposure (0.1671) to climate variables while Abaji has the least (0.0868) exposure. AMAC is high (0.1371), Kuje (0.1304) is moderate while Gwagwalada (0.1132) and Kwali (0.1154) have low exposures to climate variability. The implication of this on the referenced crops is that crop yield will be highly reduced in Bwari and optimum in Abaji Area Councils due to their climatic requirement. The power of Geo-Spatial Technology in combining different indices of exposure to produce exposure map was demonstrated in the study.
Keywords:
- Geoinformatics
- exposure
- climate variability
- evapotranspiration.
How to Cite
Ibilewa, D., Ishaya, S. K., & Magaji, J. I. (2021). Assessment of Croplands’ Exposure to Climate Variability in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria. International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 11(1), 53-77. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2021/v11i130340
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Olanrewaju RM, Sadauki AA. Effect of climate on yam tuberisation in the guinea savannah ecological zone of Nigeria: The case study of Kwara State. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, EJESM. 2012;5(2).
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Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU). Agrometeorology: Relative humidity and plant growth; 2016.
Nkuna TR, Odiyo JO. The relationship between temperature and rainfall variability in the Levubu sub-catchment, South Africa. International Journal of Environmental Science. 2016;1.
Madden RA, Williams J. The correlation between temperature and precipitation in the United States and Europe. Monitory Weather Review No. 1978;106:142-147.
Critchley W, Klaus S. Water harvesting: A manual for the design and construction of water harvesting schemes for plant production; 1991.
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IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Cambridge, UK); 2014.
Busby JW, Cook KH, Vizy EK, Smith TG, Bekalo M. Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa. Climatic Change. 2014;124:717–731. Available:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1142-z)
FAO. Land quality indicators and their use in sustainable agriculture and rural development. FAO Land and Water Bulletin. 1997;5:212.
Enete AA, Amusa TA. Challenges of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Nigeria: A synthesis from the literature. Field Actions Science Reports. 2010;4.
URL:http://journals.openedition.org/factsreports/678
Deressa T, Hassan R, Adamu T, Yusuf M, Ringler C. Analysing the determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation measures and perceptions of climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethopia. International Food Policy Research Istitute(IFPRI) Discussion paper No 00798. Washington DC; IFPRI; 2008.
Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I. At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters, 2nd edn. Routledge, London; 2004.
Legese W, Koricha D, Ture K. Characteristics of seasonal rainfall and its distribution over Bale highland, Southeastern Ethiopia. J Earth Sci Climate Change. 2018;9:443.
DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000443
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2007.
Food and Agricultural Organization. The state of food insecurity in the world, monitoring progress towards the world food summit and millennium development goals. Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy; 2004.
Food and Agricultural Organization. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forestry and fisheries: Perspective, Framework and Priorities; 2007.
Olesen JE, Bindi M. Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. European Journal of Agronomy. 2002;16(4):239-262.
International Fund for Agricultural Development.: Annual report: Enabling poor rural people to overcome poverty; 2008.
Davenport F, Funk C, Galu G. How will East African maize yields respond to climate change and can agricultural development mitigate this response; 2018.
Cornforth RJ, Young HR, Todman LC, Miret JA, Shepherd TG, Petty C, et al. ‘Assessing the impact of climate change on sweet potato in Uganda’, GCRF sweet potato catalyst, Policy brief no. 1, Walker Institute, May 2020, WIBN/0520/01. Zenodo; 2020.
Available:http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3836642
Onwutuebe CJ Patriarchy and women vulnerability to adverse climate change in Nigeria. journals.sagepub.com/home/sgo; 2019.
DOI: 10.1177/2158244019825914
Nwaiwu IUO, Ohajianya DO, Orebiyi JS, Ibekwe UC, Lemchi JI, Onyeagocha SUO, et al. Climate change trend and appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies in Southeast Nigeria. Global Journal of Biology, Agriculture and Health Sciences. 2014;3(1):120-125.
SPORE. Spore special issue on climate change. Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA); 2008.
DFID. Sustainable livelihoods guidance sheets. Natural Resources Policy and Advisory Department, London; 2000.
Dinar A, Hassan R, Kurukulasuriya P, Benhin J, Mendelsohn R. The policy nexus between agriculture and climate change in Africa. A synthesis of the investigation under the GEF/WB Project: Regional climate, water and agriculture: Impacts on and adaptation of Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria. South Africa; 2006.
Apata TG, Ogunyinka AI, Sanusi RA, Ogunwande S. Effects of global climate change on nigerian agriculture: An empirical analysis. Paper presented at the 84th Annual Conference of the Agricultural Economics Society, Edinburgh; 2010.
Hassan SM. An analysis of the impacts of rainfall variability and crop zones classification for the federal capital territory, Nigeria; 2012.
Ishaya S, Hassan SM, James SE. Post-adaptation vulnerability of cereals to rainfall and temperature variability in the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management. 2014;532-547.
Ishaya S, Hassan SM. Analysis of growing season rainfall and temperature variability in the federal capital territory of Nigeria. Nigeria Journal of Tropical Geography. 2013;4(2):471-490.
Balogun O. The federal capital territory of Nigeria: A geography of its development; 2001.
Adekayi PE. Climate of federal capital territory. In: P. D. Dawan (Ed.) Geography of Abuja: Federal Capital Territory, Famous/Asanlu publishers, Minna. 2000;9-22.
National Bureau of Statistics [NBS]. Nigerian gross domestic product report (Q3); 2017.
Dawan PD. {Ed}. Geography of abuja, federal capital territory. Department of Geography, University of Abuja; 2000.
Ishaya S, Mashi SA.. Using GIS to map fadama areas in the central abuja, Nigeria; 2008.
Alhassan MM. “Soils of the FCT” In: Dawam, P.D. (Ed.) Geography of Abuja, Federal Capital Territory. Famous/Asanlu. 2000;32-40.
Saha SS, Moorthi H, Pan X, Wu J, Wang. NCEP climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) monthly products. Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory; 2012.
Acailable:https://doi.org/10.5065/D69021ZF. 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, USA.
Abbadi GR. Impact of climate variability on agriculture in ping river basin, Thailand, a dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems; 2013.
Anandhi A, Steiner JL, Bailey N. A system’s approach to assess the exposure of agricultural production to climate change and variability. Climatic change. 2016;(136):647–659.
DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1636-y
Bunruamkaew K. How to do AHP analysis in excel; 2012.
Report.UNDP, New York, USA; 2006.
Saaty TL. Fundamentals of decision making and priority theory. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: RWS Publications; 2006.
ISBN 0-9620317-6-3
Saaty TL. Decision making for leaders: The analytic hierarchy process for decisions in a complex world. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: RWS Publications; 2008.
ISBN 0-9620317-8-X
Saaty TL. Principia mathematica decernendi: Mathematical principles of decision making. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: RWS Publications; 2010.
ISBN 978-1-888603-10-1
Oyekanmi AA. Arable crop production – Cereals: PCP 505 Crop Production II Arable.Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Ogun State; 2009.
Liebenberg A, J {Ed}. Dry bean production. Compiled by Directorate of Agricultural Information Services, Department of Agriculture in cooperation with ARC-Grain Crops Institute, South Africa; 2002.
Mohammed AB, Zakari D, Megudu M, Sandra INI. Impact of climate change on yam production in Abuja, Nigeria. International Journal of Science, Environment and Technology. 2014;3:2.
Olanrewaju RM, Sadauki AA. Effect of climate on yam tuberisation in the guinea savannah ecological zone of Nigeria: The case study of Kwara State. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, EJESM. 2012;5(2).
DOI: http//dx.doi.org/10.4314/ejesm. v5i2.4
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU). Agrometeorology: Relative humidity and plant growth; 2016.
Nkuna TR, Odiyo JO. The relationship between temperature and rainfall variability in the Levubu sub-catchment, South Africa. International Journal of Environmental Science. 2016;1.
Madden RA, Williams J. The correlation between temperature and precipitation in the United States and Europe. Monitory Weather Review No. 1978;106:142-147.
Critchley W, Klaus S. Water harvesting: A manual for the design and construction of water harvesting schemes for plant production; 1991.
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