Spatial and Temporal Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Data in Malwa Region of Kshipra River Basin, India

Pramod Kumar Meena *

Department of Agricultural Engineering, Betul, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Madhya Pradesh, India.

Deepak Khare

Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India.

Surendra Kumar Chandniha

BRSM CAET and RS, IGKV, Mungeli, India.

Harithalekshmi V

Department of Agrometeorology, College of Agriculture, IGKV, Raipur, India.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


This study investigated trends in climatic variables, such as rainfall and temperature (mean, maximum, and minimum), on both annual and seasonal basis (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, winter) at four stations viz. Mahidpur, Alot, Dewas, and Indore in the Kshipra River basin, India. Using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, trends were analyzed for data from 1980 to 2012. The analysis revealed statistically significant positive trends in maximum, minimum, and average temperatures on both annual and winter scales across all stations. Additionally, a significant positive trend in average temperature was observed in the post-monsoon season, except at Alot station. The annual trend magnitude for average temperature (Tavg) ranged from 0.020°C/year (Indore) to 0.024°C/year (Mahidpur). Rainfall trends on an annual scale showed a non-significant increase at Indore and Alot, while Mahidpur and Dewas exhibited a decreasing trend. Over the 32 year period, 2000 and 1993 were identified as breakpoint years for rainfall and temperature, respectively. From 1993 to 2012, annual minimum, maximum, and average temperatures increased by approximately 1.5%. Findings of this study can be used as a valuable information for water resource and crop planning, policy making and preparation of contingency plans.

Keywords: Trend, mann-kendell, spatial, temperature, rainfall, Kshipra, basin, India

How to Cite

Meena, Pramod Kumar, Deepak Khare, Surendra Kumar Chandniha, and Harithalekshmi V. 2024. “Spatial and Temporal Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Data in Malwa Region of Kshipra River Basin, India”. International Journal of Environment and Climate Change 14 (6):67-85.


Download data is not yet available.


Chandniha SK, Meshram SG, Adamowski JF, Meshram C. Trend analysis of precipitation in Jharkhand State, India: Investigating precipitation variability in Jharkhand State. Theor Appl Climatol. 2017;130:261-74.

Sonali P, Kumar DN. Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. J Hydrol. 2013;476:212-27.

Vinnikov KY, Groisman PY, Lugina KM. Empirical data on contemporary global climate changes (temperature and precipitation). J Climate. 1990;3(6): 662-77.

Thapliyal V, Kulshrestha SM. Climate changes and trends over India. Mausam. 1991;42(4):333-38.

Jones PD, Raper SCB, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Kelly PM, Wigley TML. Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations: 1851-1984. J Climate Appl Meteorol. 1986;25(2):161-79.

Folland CK, Parker DE. Observed variations of sea surface temperature. In: Climate-ocean interaction. Springer Netherlands; 1990;21-52.

IPCC.Summary for Policymakers [Pörtner HO, Roberts DC, Poloczanska ES, Mintenbeck K, Tignor M, Alegría A, Craig M, Langsdorf S, Löschke S, Möller V, Okem A, (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. contribution of working group II to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Pörtner HO, Roberts DC, Tignor M, Poloczanska ES, Mintenbeck K, Alegría A, Craig M, Langsdorf S, Löschke S, Möller V, Okem A, Rama B (eds.)]. Cambridge university press, cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. 2022;3-33.

DOI: 10.1017/9781009325844.001

Beniston M, Diaz HF, Bradley RS. Climatic change at high elevation sites: An overview. Clim Change. 1997;36(3-4):233-51.

Wibig J, Glowicki B. Trends of minimum and maximum temperature in Poland. Clim Res. 2002;20(2):123-33.

Beniston M. Climatic change in mountain regions: A review of possible impacts. In: Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: Past, present & future. Springer Netherlands. 2003;5-31.

Diaz HF, Grosjean M, Graumlich L. Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: past, present and future. Springer Netherlands. 2003;1-4.

Rebetez M, Dobbertin M. Climate change may already threaten Scots pine stands in the Swiss Alps. Theor Appl Climatol. 2004;79(1-2):1-9.

Vuille M, Bradley RS, Werner M, Healy R, Keimig F. Modeling δ18O in precipitation over the tropical Americas: 1. Interannual variability and climatic controls. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2003;108(D6).

Bhutiyani MR, Kale VS, Pawar NJ. Long-term trends in maximum, minimum and mean annual air temperatures across the Northwestern Himalaya during the twentieth century. Clim Change. 2007;85(1-2):159-77.

Dimri AP, Ganju A. Wintertime seasonal scale simulation over Western Himalaya using RegCM3. Pure Appl Geophys. 2007;164(8-9):1733-46.

Dash SK, Jenamani RK, Kalsi SR, Panda SK. Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Clim Change. 2007;85(3-4):299-321.

Duhan D, Pandey A. Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India. Atmos Res. 2013;122:136-49.

Nath S, Mathew A, Khandelwal S, Shekar PR. Rainfall and temperature dynamics in four Indian states: A comprehensive spatial and temporal trend analysis. HydroRes. 2023;6:247-54.

Wu Y, Fang H, Huang L, Ouyang W. Changing runoff due to temperature and precipitation variations in the dammed Jinsha River. J Hydrol. 2020;582: 124500.

Ekwueme BN, Agunwamba JC. Modeling the influence of meteorological variables on runoff in a tropical watershed. Civil Eng J. 2020;6(12):2344-51.

Mondal SK, Tao H, Huang J, Wang Y, Su B, Zhai J, et al. Projected changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration across Indus River Basin at 1.5–3.0°C warming levels using CMIP6-GCMs. Sci Total Environ. 2021;789:147867.

Li C, Hao J, Zhang G, Fang H, Wang Y, Lu H. Runoff variations affected by climate change and human activities in Yarlung Zangbo River, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Catena. 2023;230: 107184.

Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour Res. 1982;18(1):107-21.

Yu YS, Zou S, Whittemore D. Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. J Hydrol. 1993;150(1):61-80.

Kothyari UC, Singh VP. Rainfall and temperature trends in India. Hydrol Process. 1996;10(3):357-72.

Fu G, Chen S, Liu C, Shepard D. Hydro-climatic trends of the Yellow river basin for the last 50 years. Clim Change. 2004;65(1-2):149-78.

Tebakari T, Yoshitani J, Suvanpimol C. Time-space trend analysis in pan evaporation over Kingdom of Thailand. J Hydrol Eng. 2005;10(3):205-15.

Jhajharia D, Shrivastava SK, Sarkar D, Sarkar S. Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of northeast India. Agric For Meteorol. 2009;149(5):763-70.

Kumar R, Singh RD, Sharma KD. Water resources of India. Curr Sci. 2005;89(5):794-811.

Chattopadhyay S, Jhajharia D, Chattopadhyay G. Univariate modelling of monthly maximum temperature time series over northeast India: Neural network versus Yule-Walker equation based approach. Meteorol Appl. 2011;18(1):70–82. Available:

Dinpashoh Y, Jhajharia D, Fakheri-Fard A, Singh VP, Kahya E. Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran. J Hydrol. 2011;399(3):422-33.

Jain SK, Kumar V. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Curr Sci. 2012;102(1):37-49.

Jain SK, Tyagi J, Singh V. Simulation of runoff and sediment yield for a Himalayan watershed using SWAT model. J Water Resour Prot. 2010;2(3):267.

Singh A, Singh S, Nema AK, Singh G, Gangwar A. Rainfall-runoff modeling using MIKE 11 NAM model for Vinayakpur intercepted catchment, Chhattisgarh. Indian J Dryland Agric Res Dev. 2014;29(2):1-4.

Meena PK, Khare D, Shukla R, Mishra PK. Long term trend analysis of mega cities in Northern India using Rainfall Data. Indian J Sci Technol. 2015;8(3):247.

Dubey V, Panigrahi S, Vidyarthi VK. Statistical trend analysis of major climatic factors over Chhattisgarh State, India. Earth Syst Environ. 2023;7(3):629-48.

Sen PK. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J Am Stat Assoc. 1968;63(324):1379-89.

Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR. Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948-88. J Climate. 1994;7(4):586-607.

Yue S, Hashino M. Long term trends of annual and monthly precipitation in Japan. JAWRA J Am Water Resour Assoc. 2003;39(3):587-96.

Partal T, Kahya E. Trend analysis in turkish precipitation data. Hydrol Process. 2006;20(9):2011-26.

Yu YS, Zou S, Whittemore D. Non-parametric trend analysis of water quality data of rivers in Kansas. J Hydrol. 1993;150(1):61-80.

Burn DH, Cunderlik JM, Pietroniro A. Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard River basin / Tendances hydrologiques et variabilité dans le basin de la rivière Liard. Hydrol Sci J. 2004;49(1):53–67. Available:

Neeti N, Eastman JR. A contextual Mann‐Kendall approach for the assessment of trend significance in image time series. Trans GIS. 2011;15(5):599-611.

Sayemuzzaman M, Jha MK. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States. Atmos Res. 2014;137:183-94.

Kisi O, Ay M. Comparison of Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. J Hydrol. 2014;513: 362-75.

Helsel DR, Hirsch RM. Statistical methods in water resources. Vol. 49. Elsevier; 1992.

Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour Res. 1982;18(1):107-21.

Ngongondo CS. An analysis of long-term rainfall variability, trends and groundwater availability in the Mulunguzi river catchment area, Zomba mountain, Southern Malawi. Quat Int. 2006;148(1):45-50.

Goyal MK. Statistical analysis of long term trends of rainfall during 1901–2002 at Assam, India. Water Resour Manag. 2014;28(6):1501-15.

Bližňák V, Valente MA, Bethke J. Homogenization of time series from Portugal and its former colonies for the period from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Int J Climatol. 2015;35(9):2400-18.

Singh VP, Chowdhury PK. Comparing some methods of estimating mean areal rainfall. JAWRA J Am Water Resour Assoc. 1986;22(2):275-83.

Lebel T, Bastin G, Obled C, Creutin JD. On the accuracy of areal rainfall estimation: A case study. Water Resour Res. 1987;23(11):2123-34.