Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Chhattisgarh Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5: A DSSAT-based Study
Nickey Agrawal *
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.
Harsh Vardhan Puranik
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.
Gopi Krishna Das
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.
Manoj Beck
Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Climate change is a critical factor influencing global agriculture, particularly wheat production, which is highly sensitive to temperature and precipitation variations. This study examines the projected impact of future climate scenarios (2030-31, 2050-51 and 2070-71) on wheat yield across different growing environments in the wheat-growing districts of Chhattisgarh. The results reveal that the highest yield decline is observed in Mungeli district (-8.5%) in 2030-31, (-11.5%) in 2050-51 and Balodabazar district (-13.8%) in 2070-71 under RCP 4.5. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, the highest yield reductions were recorded in Raigarh and Mungeli districts (-10.3%) in 2030-31, Bilaspur district (-16.0%) in 2050-51 and Mungeli district (-21.3%) in 2070-71. Conversely, Kabirdham and Bemetara districts exhibited the lowest reductions in yield across different years and scenarios.
Keywords: Climate change, wheat yield, DSSAT model, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5, chhattisgarh, future projections