International Journal of Environment and Climate Change

Climate variability may affect cereal production through changes in rainfall and temperature patterns. This study assessed the relationship between climate variability and cereal yields in the agricultural zone of Niono, Mali, during 2010–2019, focusing on rice, millet and sorghum. Climate data comprised annual averages of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity obtained from the meteorological station of the Institute of Rural Economy in Niono, while agricultural yield data were provided by the Regional Directorate of Agriculture of Ségou. Rainfall variability was characterised using the Standardized Precipitation Index, thermal anomalies were assessed using the Lamb temperature index, and relationships between climatic variables and crop yields were examined using Spearman correlation coefficients. Over the decade, mean rainfall, temperature and relative humidity were 602.75 mm, 28.75°C and 54.27%, respectively. Rainfall varied irregularly, with 2015 recording the highest rainfall and 2014 a marked deficit, while temperature showed a slight upward tendency. Most correlations between climatic parameters and cereal yields were weak. The coefficients for rice were −0.12, −0.48 and −0.03 for rainfall, temperature and humidity, respectively; corresponding values were 0.15, 0.23 and 0.64 for millet and 0.12, 0.18 and −0.22 for sorghum. These results indicate that climatic variables alone do not explain the observed variation in cereal yields during the study period, and other agronomic and technical factors may also contribute.